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SpaceX’s orbital Starship launch debut could still happen this year

A senior SpaceX engineer and executive believes that Starship's first orbital launch could still happen by the end of 2020. (SpaceX)

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Despite the spectacular demise of a full-scale prototype just days ago, a senior SpaceX engineer and executive believes that Starship could still be ready for its first orbital launch attempt before the end of the year.

Even if the first launch attempt fails, that milestone – if realized – would be one of the single biggest upsets in the history of spaceflight, proving that Saturn V-scale orbital-class rockets can likely be built in spartan facilities with common materials for pennies on the dollar. Much like Falcon 1 suffered three launch failures before successfully reaching orbit, there’s a strong chance that Starship’s first shot at orbit will fall short, although each full-up launch failure would likely cost substantially more than the current prototypes being routinely tested to destruction in South Texas.

Most recently, what CEO Elon Musk later described as a “a minor test of a quick disconnect” went wrong in a spectacular fashion, causing a major liquid methane leak that subsequently ignited and created a massive explosion. Although Starship SN4 did technically complete its fifth Raptor engine static fire test just a minute or so prior, the ship and its immediate surroundings were obliterated by the violent explosion, leaving little more than steel shrapnel and the broken husk of a launch mount behind. It’s in this context that one of SpaceX’s most levelheaded, expert executives believes that an orbital launch could still happen this year.

A senior SpaceX engineer and executive believes that Starship’s first orbital launch could still happen by the end of 2020. (NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)

While Starship SN4’s demise and the continued possibility of the ship’s orbital launch debut occurring less than seven months from now may seem at odds with each other, that’s actually just a side effect of the approach SpaceX has always taken when developing brand new rockets and spacecraft. Following the lead of the scrappy teams that used the exact same methods to design, test, and fly the massive Saturn rockets that took humans to the Moon, SpaceX has always preferred to learn by doing.

Inevitably, testing minimum viable products to their limits will lead to failures, but those failures are actually extremely valuable so long as they are extensively analyzed and learned from. That’s exactly what SpaceX has been doing for the last six or so months with full-scale Starship prototypes: building, testing, failing, and improving in an unending cycle. Built slowly with inferior methods, Starship Mk1 almost immediately during its first pressure test in November 2019. SpaceX took that failure, extracted all the insight it could, and dramatically improved its production methods before completing Starship SN1 barely three months later.

On November 20th, 2019 Starship Mk1 burst during its first major cryogenic pressure test. (NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)
In January, SpaceX built and tested two ‘test tanks’ to failure. (NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)
Starship SN01 failed on February 28th because of a faulty ‘thrust puck’, later rectified with a third test tank that became the first to survive pressure testing just 10 days later.(NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)
Starship SN3 was destroyed by an improper test procedure on April 3rd. (LabPadre)
Starship SN4 marked the most recent failure during SpaceX’s hardware-rich development program.

Prior to SN1, SpaceX built and tested two stout test tanks to failure, ultimately achieving pressures of ~8.5 bar – sufficient for reliable human spaceflight – with the second tank on January 30th, 2020. On February 28th, Starship SN1 was unfortunately destroyed by a faulty ‘thrust puck’ (Raptor engine mount). Just 10 days later, SpaceX successfully tested a third ad-hoc test tank, proving that it had already rectified the engine section design flaw. Hardware isn’t always the only problem, however, and Starship SN3 was destroyed by human operator error during a cryogenic proof test on April 3rd.

Starship SN4 was completed and moved to the launch pad less than a month later and began testing just a few days after that, quickly racking up milestones as it became the first full-scale prototype to pass cryogenic proof testing, perform a wet dress rehearsal (WDR) with real propellant, fire up a Raptor engine, and complete a more ambitious cryogenic pressure test. Prior to the ground systems fuel leak that killed it, SN4 was possibly just days away from attempting the inaugural flight of a full-scale Starship prototype.

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With Starship SN4 now steel confetti, Starship SN5 – effectively complete – will likely take over where its predecessor left off, heading to the launch pad within the next week or so before attempting a cryogenic pressure test and Raptor static fire to clear it for flight. Per Koenigsmann, that flight debut could come just a few weeks from now – likely before the end of June if replacement ground equipment can be quickly completed. If Starship SN5 survives that hop debut, it may ultimately be upgraded with a nosecone, flaps, and two additional Raptor engines to perform a dramatic 20 km (~12 mi) flight, capped with a supersonic skydiver-style reentry and landing test.

Once that capability has been successfully demonstrated, Super Heavy development and orbital Starship operation and reentry are the next critical hurdles. If Koenigsmann is correct, it’s safe to say that the first fully heat-shielded Starships and the beginnings of the first one or several Super Heavy booster prototypes will begin to appear in South Texas within the next few months.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk just roasted Sam Altman’s Tesla Roadster cancellation

“And you forgot to mention act 4, where this issue was fixed and you received a refund within 24 hours.

But that is in your nature.”

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Elon Musk has responded to OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s decision to cancel his Tesla Roadster reservation, which he revealed on X on Thursday.

We reported on Altman’s decision, which he called “A tale in three acts,” showing his confirmation email from Tesla back in 2018, an email requesting his $50,000 deposit back after canceling his order, and a notification from Google that the email he sent was not delivered.

Musk did not take too kindly to the post from his tech rival, first referencing his position with OpenAI, and then confirming that Altman received his reservation deposit back within 24 hours:

OpenAI was started by Musk, Altman, and others back in 2015, and was geared toward being a non-profit company that would develop safe artificial intelligence that would be accessible to people.

However, Musk and Altman did not agree on the future of the company. Musk left, and Altman turned OpenAI into a for-profit company. This led to a variety of lawsuits and some very public spats between the two. Musk has called out Altman for turning the company into a for-profit, which has been his main source of criticism for his former colleague.

The Roadster has been hanging in the balance of Tesla’s manufacturing plans for seven years, but the company has made more indications that it will be unveiled later this year and will have some insane technologies.

Musk said on Friday in an episode of the Joe Rogan Experience Podcast that Tesla is “getting close to demonstrating the prototype.”

He said:

“Whether it’s good or bad, it will be unforgettable. My friend Peter Thiel once reflected that the future was supposed to have flying cars, but we don’t have flying cars. I think if Peter wants a flying car, he should be able to buy one…I think it has a shot at being the most memorable product unveil ever. [It will be unveiled] hopefully before the end of the year. You know, we need to make sure that it works. This is some crazy technology in this car. Let’s just put it this way: if you took all the James Bond cars and combined them, it’s crazier than that.”

Musk hinted that the vehicle could fly and would have “crazy technology” that would put James Bond’s vehicles to shame. It will be interesting to see what Tesla will unveil when the event happens and if it can come through on this mind-blowing teaser.

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SpaceX successfully launches 100th Starlink mission of 2025

With 100 Starlink missions completed for 2025, space enthusiasts have noted that SpaceX has successfully launched 2,554 Starlink satellites so far this year.

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Spacex-starlink-dish-gigabit-speed-vs-europe
(Credit: Starlink)

SpaceX achieved its 100th Starlink mission of the year on Friday, October 31, marking another milestone for 2025. 

A Falcon 9 rocket carrying 28 Starlink broadband satellites successfully lifted off from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California at 4:41 p.m. ET, carrying another 28 Starlink satellites to Low Earth Orbit (LEO).

Falcon 9 booster’s 29th flight

Roughly 8.5 minutes after liftoff, the Falcon 9’s first stage touched down on the drone ship Of Course I Still Love You in the Pacific Ocean. This marked the booster’s 29th flight, which is approaching SpaceX’s reuse record of 31 missions.

This latest mission adds to SpaceX’s impressive 138 Falcon 9 launches in 2025, 99 of which were dedicated to Starlink, according to Space.com. The company’s focus on reusing boosters has enabled this breakneck pace, with multiple launches each week supporting both Starlink’s expansion and external customers.

Starlink’s network continues massive global expansion

Starlink remains the largest active satellite constellation in history, with more than 10,000 satellites launched, nearly 8,800 of which are currently active. SpaceX recently achieved Starlink’s 10,000-satellite milestone. With 100 Starlink missions completed for 2025, space enthusiasts have noted that SpaceX has successfully launched 2,554 Starlink satellites so far this year.

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Starlink, which provides high-speed, low-latency internet connectivity even to the world’s most remote areas, has been proven to be life-changing technology for people across the globe. The service is currently operational in about 150 countries, and it currently has over 5 million subscribers worldwide. From this number, 2.7 million joined over the past year.

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Tesla shares updated timeframe for Cybertruck FSD V14 release

The Cybertruck was expected to receive FSD V14 before the end of the month, but Tesla was not able to meet the target.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) V14 update for the Cybertruck could arrive this weekend, as per recent comments from Director of Autopilot Software and VP of AI Ashok Elluswamy. 

The Cybertruck was expected to receive FSD V14 before the end of the month, but Tesla was not able to meet the target.

Cybertruck FSD V14

Considering the extended wait for FSD V14, it was no surprise that several Cybertruck owners were asking for updates about the system’s rollout to the all-electric pickup truck on Friday. These included the official Cybertruck X account, which responded to Elluswamy’s end of month estimate with “I only see trick. Where is my treat.” 

This prompted a response from the AI executive, who replied with, “Sorry, pushing for early access Cyber release over the weekend.” This means that if all goes well, Cybertruck owners would be able to experience FSD V14 very soon. Some, however, are wondering if Tesla would go straight to V14.2 for the Cybertruck’s FSD V14 update, or if the vehicle will receive V14.1 first. 

Tesla pushes to unify FSD experience across its lineup

The upcoming Cybertruck rollout represents the next step in Tesla’s efforts to roll out FSD capabilities across all of its vehicles. FSD V14 is a notable step forward for the company’s AI-driven self driving system, with features like Mad Max mode getting positive reviews from longtime Full Self Driving testers.

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For the Cybertruck, the FSD V14 update would mark one of its first major over-the-air upgrades for the vehicle. Likely due to its size, the Cybertruck tends to receive FSD updates later than the S3XY lineup, which is quite surprising considering that the all-electric pickup truck is a premium-priced vehicle that is home to some of Tesla’s most advanced technologies.

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