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Tesla tailwinds could drive momentum-filled finish to 2025: analyst

Tesla is heading toward some momentum to finish out the year, one Wall Street firm believes.

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Credit: @heydave7/X

Tesla has some tailwinds that could drive it toward a momentum-filled finish to the year, one Wall Street analyst is predicting.

The tailwinds are joined by some minor risks that have impacted the broader electric vehicle market, but overall, this firm believes Tesla has many catalysts moving forward.

Emmanuel Rosner of Wolfe Research believes that Tesla has plenty of things that could drive the stock upward as we approach the end of the year. With Q3 well underway, Tesla has about five months of catalysts to rely on to erase the roughly 18 percent drop in stock price it has so far this year.

At first glance, it is easy to see the things that would have investors bullish on Tesla for the rest of 2025 and even beyond. Initially, the Robotaxi launch and expansion, which spread to Northern California last night, provide potentially huge tailwinds for the company moving forward.

Tesla expands Robotaxi operation to California’s Bay Area

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Along with that, and slightly related, are the advancements in Full Self-Driving that the company has made over the past few months.

This includes the potential launch of the FSD suite in regions like Europe and Australia, where the company believes it will make some progress on regulatory approval in the coming months.

Finally, Wolfe says the company’s Optimus project, which is expected to enter scale production sometime next year, is the third catalyst for Tesla moving forward.

With these three projects in motion, Tesla truly can begin to work on rebounding from a rough 2025 on the market.

Rosner writes:

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“This name trades more around the narrative than the numbers. And net-net, we tactically see an improving narrative from here. Tesla has several catalysts coming up w/r/t FSD and Robotaxi, including an expansion of their AV service into several new U.S. markets (San Francisco, Nevada, Arizona, Florida, etc.). The company plans to unlock hands-free/eyes-off autonomy for FSD owners in select U.S. locations by YE25. Supervised FSD in China and Europe is expected to launch over the next ~12 months. And, Optimus is expected to enter scale production in 2026.”

Tesla is currently trading around $310 at around 3:20 p.m. on the East Coast.

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Investor's Corner

Michael Dell points out practical advantage of Elon Musk’s proposed pay package

As pointed out by the Dell Technologies CEO, Musk will only be rewarded if he delivers extraordinary value to shareholders

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Michael Dell points out practical advantage of Elon Musk’s proposed pay package

Michael Dell has weighed in on Elon Musk’s controversial 2025 CEO Performance Award, offering a grounded perspective amidst the noise surrounding the pay package today.

As pointed out by the Dell Technologies CEO, Musk will only be rewarded if he delivers extraordinary value to shareholders. Musk would quite literally receive no compensation if he fails to achieve his targets.

Dell emphasizes results over rhetoric

Dell shared his thoughts about Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award in a post on X.“Vote FOR Elon Musk. The award is only achieved IF he hits exceptionally ambitious market-cap and operational milestones—if he falls short, he gets nothing,” Dell wrote in his post. 

“If he succeeds, shareholders will win big through unprecedented value creation, and he will earn added voting rights to continue driving Tesla’s long-term vision.”

Musk replied with a short “Thanks Michael,” acknowledging Dell’s support. Dell’s framing cuts through the debate surrounding Musk’s compensation, as he simply focused on the incentive structure’s risk-reward balance.

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Musk’s ambitious pay package

Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award requires Tesla’s market capitalization to rise from roughly $1.1 trillion today to $8.5 trillion within a decade. This would make Tesla more valuable than any company in history.

Apart from this, Tesla’s operating profit must also grow from $17 billion to $400 billion annually. Musk must also lead the company to several product-related milestones, such as 20 million cumulative vehicle deliveries, 10 million Full Self-Driving subscriptions, 1 million Tesla Bots, and 1 million operating Robotaxis.

So far, proxy advisors Glass Lewis and ISS have urged shareholders to vote against the plan. Some prominent investors, including ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood, however, have voiced strong support for the plan. Wood called Musk “the most productive human being on earth,” arguing that his vision and ability to attract talent are central to Tesla’s success.

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Investor's Corner

Elon Musk’s 2025 pay package gets support from Tesla’s biggest bull

ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood has previously stated that she is quite confident that the vote on Elon Musk’s 2025 Performance Award would pass.

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Credit: Tesla Singapore/X

Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest and one of Tesla’s most ardent bulls, reiterated her support for Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award. 

Wood highlighted that Musk’s leadership attracts incredible talent, and it has allowed the companies he leads such as Tesla to become disruptors in their respective fields.

ARK Invest supports Musk’s leadership

Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award has received a mixed reception. Proxy firms such as Glass Lewis and Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) have stated that they would be voting against Musk’s pay package. Other entities, such as the State Board of Administration of Florida (SBA), have stated that they would be voting in favor of Tesla’s proposals. 

ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood, for her part, has previously stated that she is quite confident that the vote on Elon Musk’s 2025 Performance Award would pass. She also stated that a favorable result to the vote for Musk’s 2025 pay plan would be beneficial for Tesla.

“Elon Musk is the most productive human being on earth. And a human being who attracts incredible talent, people who want to solve the world’s hardest problems. This is a win-win for all of us if Elon succeeds this time,” Wood stated. Musk appreciated Wood’s comments, stating, “Thanks Cathie!” In a post on X.

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ARK Invest has been one of Tesla’s most loyal bulls

Tesla is ARK Invest’s single largest holding, with the firm holding an estimated $1 billion worth of TSLA, as noted in an Insider report. Wood previously said she expects the approval of Musk’s pay package to trigger “super-exponential growth” for the automaker, as new products like the Cybercab and Optimus expand Tesla’s offerings.

“Because think about it. It is a convergence among three of our major platforms. So, robots, energy storage, AI, and it’s not stopping with Robotaxis. There’s a story beyond that with humanoid robots, and our $2,600 number has nothing for humanoid robots. We just thought it’d be an investment, period,” Wood stated during an appearance at Steven Bartlett’s podcast The Diary Of A CEO.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla VP for AI software makes a case for upcoming Elon Musk shareholder vote

Elluswamy reiterated the idea that Tesla is indeed at a critical point in its history.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla’s Director of Autopilot Software and VP of AI Software Ashok Elluswamy has shared his thoughts about CEO Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award. While the executive typically discusses topics related to the company’s tech and AI initiaives, Elluswamy made it a point to make a case for Musk’s proposed pay package. 

Tesla’s VP for AI Software shares his insights 

In a post on X, Elluswamy reiterated the idea that Tesla is indeed at a critical point in its history. This is because the company is changing from a leader in electric vehicles and a major player in the energy storage market to a powerhouse pioneer in robotics that are powered by real-world AI.  As per the executive, Elon Musk’s leadership of Tesla is more relevant now more than ever. He also reported an X article he previously wrote about Elon Musk and Tesla.

“This note regarding the importance of Elon leading Tesla is more relevant now than ever. Tesla is at a critical juncture, as it is metamorphosing into the world leader in robotics. Creating large-scale, useful robots requires expertise across engineering design, manufacturing, real-world AI software, chips for AI, and more. Elon is, quite likely, the only person on Earth with deep skills and the right instincts across all these domains,” Elluswamy stated.

A push to support Musk’s 2025 performance award

In recent weeks, Tesla executives such as Board Chair Robyn Denholm have been encouraging TSLA shareholders to vote in favor of Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award, as well as other proposals that the company’s directors have argued are critical to the future of the company. These proposals, Tesla executives noted, are necessary to ensure that the company can achieve the ambitious targets of Elon Musk’s Master Plan Part IV. 

Elon Musk’s pay package, as well as the company’s proposals, would be decided at the upcoming 2025 Annual Shareholders Meeting, which would be held at Giga Texas on November 6, 2025. Needless to say, Tesla’s future might very well be decided during the event. 

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