Robotaxi expansion

While discussing Tesla’s Robotaxi ambitions, Elon Musk shared some tidbits about the company’s targets for the autonomous ride-hailing program. As per Musk, Tesla is pushing to increase its Robotaxi fleet size in Austin to 500 units. The Robotaxi fleet in the Bay Area will also be increased to 1,000 units. These expansions are expected to be accomplished by the end of the year.

“We’re scaling up the number of cars to, what happens if you have a thousand cars? Probably we’ll have a thousands cars or more in the Bay Area by the end of this year, probably 500 or more in the greater Austin area,” Musk said in the podcast. 

Considering that there are only two months left in the fourth quarter of 2025, Tesla’s Robotaxi team will likely be extremely busy during the next eight weeks. A successful expansion of the Robotaxi pilot in Austin and the Bay Area will also bode well for the company’s ride-hailing program, which has been pretty conservative as of late.

Musk’s Robotaxi comments

Elon Musk has been pretty clear in the past that Tesla’s FSD and Robotaxi network would play a huge role in the company’s future valuation and potential. Thus, during the third quarter earnings call, Musk highlighted that Tesla will also be transitioning to a system with no safety monitors in Austin by the end of the year. 

“We are expecting to have no safety drivers in at least large parts of Austin by the end of this year. So within a few months, we expect to have no safety drivers at all in at least parts of Austin. We’re obviously being very cautious about the deployment,” Musk said during the Q3 2025 earnings call.

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CEO Elon Musk put an end to this discussion, at least for now, as he maintains the vehicle will not have anything that would remotely resemble any possibility of any sort of manual operation.

The problem is, there is a flaw in his logic, and his justification for the reasoning is an opinion. But Musk has a special ability; he has the final say on what goes on at Tesla, and if he does or doesn’t want manual controls in the new vehicle, he’ll get his way.

On the All In Podcast on Friday, Musk gave his final answer to whether the Cybercab would have a steering wheel or pedals by stating it would not when the production units start rolling off lines in Q2 2026.

He provided a further explanation:

“The reality is, people may think they want to drive their car, but the reality is that they don’t. How many times have you been in an Uber or Lyft and said ‘I wish I could take over for the driver, get off my phone, and drive to my destination? 0.0 times.”

Elon Musk says Tesla will NOT put a steering wheel in the Cybercab (via All In Podcast):

“The reality is, people may think they want to drive their car, but the reality is that they don’t. How many times have you been in an Uber or Lyft and said ‘I wish I could take over for… pic.twitter.com/SGu3to5anA

— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 31, 2025

Although the units that have been spotted on public roads in recent days are equipped with a steering wheel and pedals, it is because Tesla is testing the vehicle in real-world situations, and manual controls are required for it.

Tesla Cybercab spotted testing on public roads for the first time

Some Tesla fans in the community have said that the car seems more geared toward being suitable for manual operation as opposed to a fully autonomous vehicle primed for driverless ride-hailing.

Earlier this week, Tesla Board Chair Robyn Denholm said that if the company had to put a steering wheel or pedals into the Cybercab, it would.

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Already active in Austin, Texas, and the California Bay Area, Tesla is looking to expand its Robotaxi operations to new states. It’s had its eyes set on Nevada, Florida, and Arizona, which have seemed to have the most movement of the three prospects over the past month or so.

That trend is continuing.

Earlier this month, we reported on two Robotaxi units spotted testing with LiDAR rigs for ground truth validation in Gilbert, Arizona. Noted Cybertruck owner and enthusiast Greggertruck spotted the two units traveling on a highway.

Tesla Robotaxi testing in Arizona is ramping up quickly

Now, those same two units, or at least they appear to be, were spotted in Scottsdale, which is also a suburb of Phoenix, like Gilbert is, with the same LiDAR rigs:

Real world AI coming to Scottdale! Tesla robotaxi spotted beginning testing! @SawyerMerritt @elonmusk @CuriousPejjy pic.twitter.com/D2eUmQsiao

— MpWraps (@MWraps30584) October 29, 2025

These validation units are used to gain additional data for Tesla’s internal use, or even potentially for regulatory purposes that the company can share with agencies that will eventually grant a license to operate Robotaxi in the state.

Tesla is not a company that utilizes LiDAR for its everyday self-driving efforts, as it has utilized only cameras for the past several years.

Tesla Vision, as the company calls it, is what CEO Elon Musk feels is needed to achieve a fully autonomous network of vehicles, which will eventually need zero supervision for passenger transportation.

LiDAR is utilized by other companies, like Waymo, but Tesla has maintained that it is not necessary for several years. Musk has called it a “crutch” for achieving the proper self-driving tech, and the company only uses it for an additional bit of data.

Tesla has been operating its Robotaxi service in Austin since late June, and it has expanded its service area in the city to nearly 300 square miles, with its most recent expansion occurring earlier this week.

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However, the company has seemingly kept its fleet size relatively small compared to the size of the service area, making some people — even pro-Tesla influencers — ask for more transparency and an expansion of the number of vehicles it has operating.

Over the past four months, Tesla has done an excellent job of maintaining growth with its service area in Austin as it continues to roll out the early stages of what is the Robotaxi platform.

The most recent expansion brought its size from 170 square miles (440.298 sq. km) to 243 square miles (629.367 sq. km).

Tesla sends clear message to Waymo with latest Austin Robotaxi move

This has broadened its geofence to nearly three times the size of Waymo’s current service area, which is great from a comparative standpoint. However, there seems to be something that also needs to be expanded as the geofence gets larger: the size of the Robotaxi fleet.

Tesla has never revealed exactly how many Model Y vehicles it is using in Austin for its partially driverless ride-hailing service (We say partial because the Safety Monitor moves to the driver’s seat for freeway routes).

When it first launched Robotaxi, Tesla said it would be a small fleet size, between 10 and 20 vehicles. In late August, after its second expansion of the service area, it then said it “also increased the number of cars available by 50 percent.”

Tesla reveals it has expanded its Robotaxi fleet in Austin

The problem is, nobody knows how many cars were in the fleet to begin with, so there’s no real concrete figure on how many Robotaxis were available.

This has caused some frustration for users, who have talked about the inability to get rides smoothly. As the geofence has gotten larger, there has only been one mentioned increase in the fleet.

Trying to book a RoboTaxi in the new geofence and can’t get paired with a car.

Really think Tesla needs to add more cars to the fleet in Austin. Has become tougher and tougher to use the service reliably @elonmusk pic.twitter.com/KHqea3oUxU

— Farzad (@farzyness) October 29, 2025

Tesla did not reveal any new figures or expansion plans in terms of fleet size in the recent Q3 Earnings Call, but there is still a true frustration among many because the company will not reveal an exact figure.

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Tesla and Waymo are the two true leaders in autonomous ride-hailing to an extent. Tesla has what many believe is a lot of potential due to its prowess with the Supervised Full Self-Driving suite. It is also operating a driverless Robotaxi service in Austin with a “Safety Monitor” that sits in the passenger’s seat.

Tesla explains why Robotaxis now have safety monitors in the driver’s seat

The two companies have been competing heavily in the market since they both launched driverless ride-hailing services in Austin this year: Waymo’s in March and Tesla’s in June.

One of the main drivers in the competition between the two is service area size, or the geofence in which the cars will operate without a driver. In August, the two were tied with a service area of about 90 square miles (233.099 sq. km).

Tesla then expanded to about 170 square miles (440.298 sq. km) on August 26, dwarfing Waymo’s service area and expanding to freeways. Tesla’s freeway operation of the Robotaxi suite requires the Safety Monitor to be in the driver’s seat for safety reasons.

On Tuesday evening, Tesla made another move that sent a clear message to Waymo, as it expanded once again, this time to 243 square miles (629.367 sq. km).

This is according to Robotracker:

Here’s a comparison of Tesla’s geofence in Austin vs. Waymo’s

Tesla’s now spans 243 square miles, almost three times the size of Waymo’s at 89 square miles https://t.co/OCAHQDQhzb pic.twitter.com/wq5bHQXCp4

— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 29, 2025

It is the first expansion Tesla has made in Austin since the one on August 26. The company still operates in the Bay Area of California as well, referring to that program specifically as a “ride-hailing service.”

Yesterday, it expanded that service to the San Jose Mineta International Airport, something it has been working on for several months.

Waymo has its own set of distinct advantages over Tesla as well, as it operates in more cities and states than the EV maker. Waymo currently has its autonomous vehicle services in Phoenix, Arizona, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin, and Atlanta, Georgia.

Tesla plans to have half of the U.S. population with access to the Robotaxi platform by the end of the year.

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Tesla’s ride-hailing service in the California Bay Area is somewhat similar to what the company is doing with Robotaxi in Austin, Texas.

However, regulatory rules and the fact that the company is operating with someone in the driver’s seat —a stark difference from the operation in Austin —have kept the business categorized as a ride-hailing application in California.

But Tesla is still breaking barriers down with its service, which operates entirely using the Full Self-Driving (Supervised) platform, as the “Safety Monitors” are only there to ensure safety and take over in the most necessary circumstances.

In September, Tesla filed to begin operating its ride-hailing service at various airports in the Bay Area, including San Francisco International Airport, San Jose Mineta International Airport, and Oakland International Airport.

Tesla targets Bay Area airports as next step for Robotaxi rollout

It officially came through on that promise last night, as it announced its Bay Area ride-hailing service would now go to San Jose Mineta International Airport:

Our Bay Area ride-hailing service now goes to SJC airport

— Tesla AI (@Tesla_AI) October 27, 2025

The expansion signals a key approval for Tesla to travel to one of the more popular places where people would need or simply want a drop-off. Airports are expensive to park in, so many people utilize ride-hailing services to enable a more economical experience from start to finish.

With this approval for SJC, Tesla will likely gain even more approvals for other airports in the Bay Area in the coming weeks or months.

While Tesla believes at least half of the U.S. population will have access to the company’s Robotaxi program or its ride-hailing service by the end of the year, the first step will be gaining approval in more metropolitan areas.

Tesla is looking to expand to other states, including Nevada, Florida, and Arizona, with its Robotaxi platform in the near future.

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This week, Tesla will report earnings for the third quarter, and one thing people always pay attention to is deliveries. Although Tesla reveals its deliveries for the quarter well before it reports earnings, many investors will look for commentary regarding the company’s strategy for responding to the loss of the $7,500 tax credit.

Tesla has made a few moves already, including a lease deal that takes a substantial amount of money off, launching new Standard models, and cutting up to 23 percent off of lease pricing.

Tesla makes crazy move to spur short-term demand in the U.S.

However, analysts are looking at the company in a different light.

Aligning with the narrative that Tesla is not just a car company and has many different projects, Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management believes many investors need to look at another part of the business.

Munster said the delivery figures for Q3, which landed at 497,099, the highest in company history, were padded by customers rushing to showrooms to take advantage of the expiring tax credit.

He believes that deliveries will be more realistic in subsequent quarters, but investors should not worry because the focus on Tesla is not going to be on how many cars it hands over to customers:

“Numbers are going down next year, but that’s ok because it’s all about autonomy.”

Here’s the $TSLA preview. Numbers are going down next year, but that’s ok because it’s all about autonomy. pic.twitter.com/mUb9scFtCA

— Gene Munster (@munster_gene) October 17, 2025

Tesla has been working nonstop to roll out a dedicated Robotaxi platform in various cities across the United States, and has already launched in two states: Texas and California.

It has also received regulatory approvals to test driverless Robotaxis in Arizona and Nevada, while seeking permissions in Florida and other states, according to the company’s online job postings.

Munster continued:

“Most people are hyper-focused on the Robotaxi opportunity and not focused as much on FSD.”

While Robotaxi is incredibly important, Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (Supervised) suite is also extremely crucial moving forward, as it sets the stage for the company to roll out a formidable self-driving service.

Tesla rolled out its newest FSD software to more owners last night, and as it expands, the company is gaining valuable data to refine its performance.

Earnings will be reported tomorrow at market close.

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Tesla first launched its Robotaxi suite in Austin, Texas, in late June. It expanded the suite to the San Francisco Bay Area just a month later. Since then, it has not launched any public rides in any other states, but it has gained several approvals for early testing.

Tesla officially launches Robotaxi service with no driver

In preparation for operation in new states, Tesla routinely lists job postings on its Careers website, which helps align potential employees with opportunities ahead of regulatory approvals. This is a strategy that allows Tesla to start operations immediately upon licensing for testing.

Tesla started hiring Vehicle Operators for Autopilot in Arizona and Nevada months before the company gained any sort of approvals from state governments for Robotaxi. However, those approvals eventually came in the form of testing licenses, which allow the company to perform validation ahead of its public launch.

Tesla begins validating Robotaxi in a new area, hinting at expansion

Now, Tesla has posted job listings for Vehicle Operators for Autopilot in two new states: Colorado and Illinois. The Colorado job listing is located in Aurora, a suburb of Denver. Tesla is looking for Robotaxi operators in Chicago as well.

These postings hint toward Tesla’s continuing efforts to expand Robotaxi to new places. Earlier this year, CEO Elon Musk said the company would like to have Robotaxi available to at least half of the U.S. population.

It has expanded significantly since its initial launch in late June, but it is still a far way off from where Tesla would like it to be by year’s end.

So far, Tesla has job listings for Autopilot Vehicle Operators in Arizona, California, Texas, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, and Illinois.

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Two Robotaxi units with LiDAR validation equipment were spotted in Gilbert, Arizona, recently, showing that Tesla is aiming to launch its ride-hailing service in the state soon:

TESLA ROBOTAXI SPOTTED VALIDATING IN GILBERT, AZ! :0 pic.twitter.com/kqtQEBwl8Y

— Greggertruck (@greggertruck) October 11, 2025

Another unit was spotted in Tempe, Arizona:

Spotted this one and another one behind it in Tempe, AZ. I also saw a pair driving from Mesa to Tempe. Looks like they’re validating the entire east valley. I haven’t seen any in the west valley yet. pic.twitter.com/gFWTHhmBLT

— TechCat (@elviswjr) October 12, 2025

These types of validation vehicles have been spotted in several areas ahead of their launch as a public ride-hailing service for passengers. Tesla first launched Robotaxi in Austin, Texas, back in late June, and since then, it has expanded to the Bay Area of California.

However, Tesla has continued to attempt to expand Robotaxi to other areas as well, including Nevada and Arizona. It has also been working toward approvals in other states based on job postings, as Tesla is hiring for Autopilot Vehicle Operators in New York and Florida, as well.

The expansion of the Robotaxi ride-hailing service has been an effort that Tesla has been spending a lot of time on over the past few months. CEO Elon Musk said the expansion aims to bring Robotaxi to at least half of the U.S. population by the end of the year, but there is still plenty of work to be done.

Tesla Robotaxi heads to a new major Texas city for the first time

Tesla did make its Robotaxi app public in recent months, allowing more members of the public to experience the suite for themselves, as long as they could get to Austin or the Bay Area.

In the coming months, it seems more apparent that Tesla will take a broader focus on expanding Robotaxi, especially with the fact that these validation vehicles are being spotted throughout different parts of the United States.

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JPMorgan raised its price target on Tesla shares from $115 to $150. It maintained its ‘Underweight’ rating on the stock.

Despite Tesla reporting 497,099 deliveries, about 12 percent above the 443,000 anticipated from the consensus, JPMorgan is still skeptical that the company can keep up its momentum, stating most of its Q3 strength came from leaning on the removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit, which expired on September 30.

Tesla hits record vehicle deliveries and energy deployments in Q3 2025

The firm said Tesla benefited from a “temporary stronger-than-expected industry-wide pull-forward” as the tax credit expired. It is no secret that consumers flocked to the company this past quarter to take advantage of the credit.

The bump will need to be solidified as the start of a continuing trend of strong vehicle deliveries, the firm said in a note to investors. Analysts said that one quarter of strength was “too soon to declare Tesla as having sustainably returned to growth in its core business.”

JPMorgan does not anticipate Tesla having strong showings with vehicle deliveries after Q4.

There are two distinct things that stick out with this note: the first is the lack of recognition of other parts of Tesla’s business, and the confusion that surrounds future quarters.

JPMorgan did not identify Tesla’s strength in autonomy, energy storage, or robotics, with autonomy and robotics being the main focuses of the company’s future. Tesla’s Full Self-Driving and Robotaxi efforts are incredibly relevant and drive more impact moving forward than vehicle deliveries.

Additionally, the confusion surrounding future delivery numbers in quarters past Q3 is evident.

Will Tesla thrive without the EV tax credit? Five reasons why they might

Tesla will receive some assistance from deliveries of vehicles that will reach customers in Q4, but will still qualify for the credit under the IRS’s revised rules. It will also likely introduce an affordable model this quarter, which should have a drastic impact on deliveries depending on pricing.

Tesla shares are trading at $422.40 at 2:35 p.m. on the East Coast.

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